2010 Preview

Opening Day is here, another long winter passed. Every spring Opening Day brings out the optimist in me with projections leaning on the Cub-friendly side, though I nailed it last year saying the Cubs "could be in a heap of trouble in the power department if Aramis Ramirez misses an extended period of time". Anyhoo...

Offense-wise, I expect improvement. Derrek Lee was the only starter who hit above expectations in 2009, and Ramirez missed two full months, a third of the season. The Cubs could reasonably expect more offense from all three outfield positions, third base and catcher. In the outfield, Marlon Byrd is a step up from Milton Bradley’s productivity as a Cub, and Tyler Colvin will take starts away from him, Soriano and Fukudome if they don’t pull their weight. On the middle infield, if Mike Fontenot hits like he can over a full season, or Starlin Castro forces his way into the lineup, there should be an improvement over last year’s production with the addition-by-subtraction of Aaron Miles. Unless Geovany Soto is really the player we saw in 2009 rather than in 2008, there should be improvement from his lineup slot - he dropped a bunch of weight and his eyebrows are less aggressively trimmed, so at least he looks serious. And D-Lee is in a contract year.

I’m not worried much about the rotation. Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly and Randy Wells are a solid front four (though I think the Cards are stronger in their top two with Carpenter and Wainwright), and Sean Marshall has patiently earned a shot. Carlos Silva looks better than he was with Seattle – if his mother being able to enter the country makes a difference, and off-the-field things like that really can, we could be in for a very pleasant surprise – and I think Tom Gorzelanny can be a decent swingman. Carlos Marmol gets his first shot at closing all year, so I’m concerned about how well he makes the transition as well as his control this spring, and practically every team has middle-relief questions every year, the 2010 Cubs included. We’ll just have to wait and see.

For all their problems, the 2009 Cubs still finished in second place, and none of the departed players will be missed except for maybe Jake Fox and Rich Harden. The Cardinals have been the best team in the Central since they picked up Matt Holliday, but if the Cards pitched over their heads last year – Carpenter, Wainwright, Franklin – the Cubs can make it close.

Barring a long-term injury to Ramirez, Lee, Marmol or one of the front three starters, I see the 2010 Cubs in the 90-72 range and in the running for the Wild Card, depending on who pops up on the trade market.

1. Cardinals
2. Cubs
3. Reds
4. Brewers
5. Astros
6. Pirates