Monday, July 30, 2007

Playoff bound?

By the end of the day, the Cubs could be in first place.

Let that soak in for a second.

Once as far back in the standings as the '69 Mets, the '07 Cubs rank second in the league in the loss column, ahead of first-place Milwaukee.

Here's a reminder of what they're playing for, from the last time an '07 rolled around (Chicago Daily News archive photo):
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Chicks dug the dead ball, too.

Thursday, July 19, 2007

Izturis is a tourist

One of the Cubs' unproductive roster spots was freed up today, as shortstop Cesar Izturis (see previous post) packs his bags and heads to the Pirates for the infamous Player to be Named Later.

More a situation of no room in a crowded infield than not giving the Cubs about what they expected, the move allows Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot more playing time in the middle infield. AA catcher Jake Fox got the call to fill Izturis' spot. The Southern League home run leader, Fox adds needed lineup muscle and can also chip in at either corner position in the infield or outfield.

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

For real?

The Cubs won again Wednesday. With Carlos Zambrano on the mound, even with both Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez out of the lineup, they beat the Giants 12-1.

That's 27 wins in 40 games. That's nearly a quarter of a season at a .675 clip, the best in baseball since June 3.

While they probably won't play .675 ball the rest of the way (which would give them about 96 wins), .675 won't be necessary to get to the playoffs. Not with Milwaukee losing ground rapidly even before putting their ace on the shelf until possibly September. Even with a few missing puzzle pieces the Cubs have better than .500 talent, it's just a matter of which end of that spectrum is closer to the truth and by how much.

One of those pieces has been put in place, at least. In essentially a three-way deal of Michael Barrett and a prospect for Jason Kendall and a prospect with a brief loan of Rob Bowen, Jim Hendry re-solidified the catcher position with veteran talent. I like Kendall as a ballplayer, and he'd driven in more runs at Wrigley Field than any other road park over his career.

His numbers weren't great with Oakland this year, though they've improved somewhat and he hit for higher average in interleague play than against the American League. Maybe Kendall's just a National League kind of hitter; we'll have to wait and see until he's used to the new surroundings. But at least there's one catcher on the active roster who isn't a rookie, and he's still close to a .300 career hitter.

With less than two weeks remaining before the first trade deadline, the Cubs are still looking for buyers on at least Jacque Jones and Cesar Izturis, who should be playing everyday somewhere, and there's a lot of talent out there to be had. The team I'm looking at personally, and I hope Jim Hendry is, is Texas.

Eric Gagne sure would be nice to have in a stretch run, even with Ryan Dempster, a decent closer but not in Gagne's class, soon to be activated from the DL. Factor in Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood (remember Kerry Wood?), who's also soon to be activated, that's some serious gas in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings.

Kenny Lofton may also be on the table, since he's a free agent after this season. Nobody's really laid claim to center field for the Cubs this year, and Lofton's developed a quirky habit of finding his way onto playoff-bound teams, five different ones in the last six years. He's still a .300 hitter and a stolen base threat (20 so far this year) even at age 40, and he was a huge part of the Cubs' division title in 2003. With Angel Pagan, Felix Pie and Jones splitting time in center, it would be nice to have a veteran hitter there to stabilize the position for the push.

Either of those potential acquisitions put more guys on the table. Between Alfonso Soriano, Felix Pie and this winter's free agent crop I don't see a starting job for Matt Murton next year and beyond, and if the Cubs pick up an everyday outfielder like Lofton, between Cliff Floyd, Mark DeRosa and Angel Pagan there won't be anywhere for him to play this year, so they might as well trade him. The Rangers could do worse than Murton, with Jerry Hairston Jr. and Frank Catalanotto both hitting under .230 in their outfield. If Gagne is added, and Kerry Wood stays off the DL for more than a week, there will be expendable veteran bullpen arms.

Whichever suitors Texas picks, I think the Cubs do have the depth of talent to step up a couple more roster spots before the deadline and make a good team better. Just a game over .500 the rest of the way, with a favorable schedule, would put the Cubs at 84 wins. It won't take many more than that to win the Central.

Friday, July 06, 2007

Crunching some numbers

I was looking at Felix Pie's game log today...

April 17 - debuts with 5-7 Cubs
May 9 - last game before demotion by 16-15 Cubs
Record: 11-8

May 10-June 2 - Chicago goes 6-16

June 3 - returns to 22-31 Cubs
July 5 - Cubs are 43-41
Record: 21-10

With Pie - 32-18, .640
Without Pie - 11-23, .324

Oddly enough, the Cubs are playing even better when he's on the bench, 6-1 in May before Pie was sent back to Iowa, and 9-2 since he lost the starting role the second time.

With a record like that, I'll forgive a .217 average.

Wednesday, July 04, 2007

Defining Lou Piniella's Cubs

The Lou Piniella Cub era is starting to take shape.

Moves still need to be made, and a couple of kids need to put all the pieces together consistently, but the core of the Cubs' offense for the next several years could be shaping up. And they're winning.

Without a permanent solution in right field, without a bona fide starting catcher, with up to five rookie- to rookie-plus starters on any given day including the pitcher, and before Piniella's first trade deadline as manager, they're winning. Above .500 at the halfway point and closing ground on a Brewers team that blew an opportunity to put away the division early.

It's been a good month.

The kids are getting the job done. Despite fewer than 100 career at-bats, Mike Fontenot was a sparkplug in the two-slot, where he needs to return, slugging over .600. He re-forms a double-play combination that's won before, joining his partner Ryan Theriot from Louisiana State's 2000 College World Series champs, with a coach in Alan Trammell who played next to the same guy for 19 years.

Felix Pie, even at .220, is a force to be reckoned with. Though he's been riding the bench lately, he's had enough playing time to jump to third on the team in stolen bases and a tie for second in triples, and I drool at the prospect of double-digit outfield assists and Gold Glove potential at two positions for years to come.

Carlos Marmol has also stepped up his game. Upper 90s on the speed gun, wicked movement on his slider, and in the games I've seen, he keeps the ball down. Regardless of whether he was imagined as a starter, he's doing a great job in the setup role and shows definite closer potential.

And Sean Marshall has pitched well. And when Rich Hill is on, he's on.

That's six guys making an impact at bargain-basement prices on a team that made headlines for its spending spree in the off-season.

Throw them all together, along with Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee and Alfonso Soriano, and you could be looking at six starters, possibly seven including the pitcher, on Opening Day 2010.

Even if 2007 doesn't turn out to be the year, this will be the core of a team Cub fans will talk about for a long time to come.