MLB's drug problem

Thankfully it didn't hit the Cubs, but the dozen suspensions handed out by MLB on Monday serve as yet another prominent reminder of baseball's failure to properly address the use of performance-enhancing substances.

As long as there are lists of banned substances, there will be incentive to develop new ones and incentive for players to use them until they're added to the list, which could take years. It may take another work stoppage in order to set a drastically different policy, but MLB needs to address the issue from a different angle.

The real issue should be controlling who can provide treatment, medical services or supplements to major league baseball players. There's too much money changing hands, not to mention the integrity of the game, to leave things up to chance. We're talking about jocks with egos here. There may be a few Stanford men in the mix, but with 1,200 guys on 40-man rosters, some of whom signed their first contracts at age 16 or 17, there are bound to be a few meatheads who would have trouble outwitting a glazed doughnut.

The simplest solution, and the most effective, would be for all players' health care to come from MLB except for emergency services. Go ahead and provide insurance for players' families with the doctors of their choice, but if you're on a 40-man roster, every doctor you see, every specialist, every nutritionist, every trainer, should be either a full-time employee of your team or the league or a licensed partner of MLB. Every prescription, every supplement, every over-the-counter pill, every vitamin, should come from one of those sources.

That provides a chain of liability where the only questionable link is the player himself. Then if he get a test that comes back funny and there's no logical explanation based on the medical reports his team provides, which should include everything that's gone into his body except food and drinks, he has an appointment with the commissioner. The substance that caused it is irrelevant. He violated policy by using an unauthorized source.

And if they really want to be serious about enforcement, give the teams incentive to keep a closer watch on their players. Don't let the team fill the roster spot of a player serving a medical suspension. You might have enough TV-contract money to eat some salary on a guy with one strike if he gets popped again, but are you willing to be a man down for 100 games? If you're a player, are you going to take that risk knowing your shot at a nine-figure deal with a perennial contender, or maybe any contract at all, might go right out the window? For a lot more players, the answer would be no.

On the other hand, not all drugs enhance performance or are illegal. Plenty of players smoke tobacco and/or drink alcohol, which are legal and, while frowned upon, are accepted by baseball. Two major league teams play where cannabis is legal for recreational use and that number could grow, but baseball really has no business cracking down on it. Blowing a little weed doesn't compare to using steroids or human growth hormone, or to other recreational drugs like cocaine or amphetamines. It's not going to improve reaction time or make it easier to hit or catch small, fast-moving objects, and players know that.

But if baseball wants to eliminate cases like former Bears quarterback Jim Miller testing positive and claiming it was because his regular supplement was out of stock at GNC and he bought something else because it was on sale, it needs to eliminate sources of innocent mistakes. And if they want to sidestep the expenses of providing supplements and nutrients themselves, license out the logo to approved products. Team nutritionists' offices get stocked as part of the deal and the league gets some fat checks on the side. That way, if some high-schooler or college kid sees that logo on the side of a bottle, he'll know he can take it without the risk of a career-altering failed test right after signing his first pro contract. Or some 40-year-old weekend warrior can take it, knowing that logo bears a higher standard than a product that at best has a disclaimer distancing it from the USDA.

In simpler terms, think about disciplining a misbehaving child. You don't tell Junior he can't go to his friend's house, the park, the playground, the mall, the zoo, the ice cream parlor, the beach, the baseball card shop, the comic book shop, and so on, that only leaves a world of possibilities you've left off the list. You tell him he can't leave the house or there'll be hell to pay.

Necessary post on Junior Lake

Junior Lake's had a pretty impressive first week in the majors.

Obviously he's not going to continue to bat .545 for the rest of his career, and back-to-back games with home runs won't continue to be expected on a weekly basis, but I've already found a lot to like about this kid. He's hit safely in all five games, with a pair of three-hit games and a four-hit game already under his belt.

Start with his debut last Friday. He roped the first pitch he saw down the line in left for a double and stole third on the next pitch. Monday night, he bunted for a single, followed that up with a home run, and followed that up with another bunt single.

I may have seen guys bunt for a hit and homer in the same game, but in 30+ years, I don't recall ever seeing anyone sandwich a home run between a pair of bunt singles. And better yet, one bunt was to the right side and the other was to the left. I played a little third base in my day, and that's a dangerous combination to try to defend. Play him in and he can smoke one past you for extra bases. Play back and you risk him dropping one down in front of you. As long as he can make contact, that can keep him out of extended hitting slumps. As the saying goes, "speed doesn't slump". He has power and speed, and he's actually demonstrated the ability to use them both.

But what I like the most so far is that he was expected to have a cup of coffee as an injury fill-in and go back to Triple-A after a week, and he forced the Cubs' hand to keep him with the parent club as the leadoff man. For a 23-year-old - three days younger than Starlin Castro - who was expected to maybe be a September callup, that's a very encouraging sign.

The next question is where he'll play. He's played only eleven games in pro ball as an outfielder, six in right at Iowa and now five with the Cubs in center, and made two errors. There's a learning curve involved in going from the infield to the outfield if you've never played there before, from positioning to routes to where to throw, and his defensive numbers don't favor a return to the infield to bump either Castro or Darwin Barney or jump in and split time with Luis Valbuena and Cody Ransom, who have produced a surprising amount of power this season at third.

We'll be seeing more prospects moved away from their natural positions over the next few seasons as infielders like Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Mike Olt, Dan Vogelbach and hopefully others force promotions up through the system, but for the time being at least, Lake's bat has to stay in the lineup.

Good for you, Junior. I'm anxious to see how you pan out once you and the league know each other better. Keep them on their toes and you'll be around for a long time.

Promise fulfilled, eventually

"You'll see all the parks in the other league", they promised us when interleague play was proposed.

Tonight, in the seventeenth season of interleague action, the Cubs will play their first-ever game in Oakland.

Anthony Rizzo, one year later

Yesterday marked the first anniversary of Anthony Rizzo's debut with the Cubs. So how have things worked out for the guy they extended through 2019 with club options through 2021?

He's had his ups and downs, hot streaks and cold, but averaged out, the overall numbers look good. His day off last Wednesday was his first of the year, and with one day off last season after his callup, he's played exactly 162 games going into today's action. A nice, "round" number in baseball terms.

So here are the totals: 622 at-bats, 84 runs, 169 hits, 37 doubles, 2 triples, 27 home runs, 94 RBIs, 60 walks, 8 stolen bases in 13 attempts with a slash line of .272/.342/.468 as a Cub. That's a lot of run production for a team that's struggled offensively.

His numbers are comparable to Prince Fielder's first full season with the Brewers, with slight upticks in runs scored, extra base hits and steals, and with four fewer errors and 13 more RBIs. Fielder had a couple of spike years in terms of home runs and RBIs, and quickly learned to draw a lot of walks - as has Rizzo in the past month, with 18 through 22 games in June - but his career averages of 36 homers and 108 RBIs with 33 doubles, 91 runs scored and a .286 average don't seem at all out of the realm of possibility for Rizzo, and Fielder is signed to a nine-year deal worth $214 million.

Meanwhile, Yonder Alonso, the guy whom the Padres thought made Rizzo expendable, has only 15 home runs, 91 RBIs and 69 runs scored for San Diego after more than 200 games.

So far, so good.

Marmol, Stewart say goodbye

The Cubs designated Carlos Marmol for assignment today, marking an end of the longest tenure in the organization. Marmol was signed in 1999 as a catcher/outfielder and was converted to a pitcher beginning in 2002.

The Cubs tried to fix what wasn't broken in Marmol, turning an all-star setup man into a shaky closer, and he never really recovered. I'm confident he'll turn things around, though once you lose the fans in Chicago, winning them back is no simple task, so it's best for both parties that he do it elsewhere.

He leaves with a career ERA of 3.50, with high totals in strikeouts and walks but holding opponents to a .185 batting average and .301 slugging percentage over eight seasons. Like Mariano Rivera, the numbers are inflated by a few starts early in his career. As a reliever, despite the rocky outings that punched his ticket out of town, he had an ERA of 3.15 while batters hit .176 and slugged .273 against him. Not too shabby.


Former Astros outfielder Brian Bogusevic got the call to fill Marmol's roster spot after batting .319 with 10 homers at Iowa. Despite the numbers, I don't see a major role for him unless the Cubs are looking to move an outfielder. Even with David DeJesus on the DL with a separated shoulder, his addition gives the North Siders six outfielders on the active roster. That's a lot of outfielders when none of them can fill in at first or third.

I was less disappointed to read that Ian Stewart was given his unconditional release. Stewart wasn't expected to fill the shoes of Aramis Ramirez at third, but Tyler Colvin wasn't going to turn things around with the Cubs and D.J. LeMahieu wasn't slated to be a starter anyway. I can't blame the Cubs for rolling the dice with Stewart even if it just didn't work out. He didn't win a roster spot out of spring training and was batting .168 at Iowa after hitting .201 last season.

So who's next? I keep hearing Scott Feldman's name in trade rumors, and I'd rather see them extend his one-year deal than send him packing. I'd rather see Matt Garza go if they have to deal a starter. There's no question of Garza's stuff or his makeup, or his trade value and potential upside for that matter, but if the Cubs' chances rely on him getting 32 starts a year, that's a big risk.

Meanwhile, based on the big names in the farm system, I don't see any outfielders on the active roster whom I consider part of the big picture. Nate Schierholtz is having the best season of his career, and that could bring a basket of goodies from the right team. Maybe with one-plus seasons left on his deal, this is the year somebody takes a chance on Alfonso Soriano.

In any case, changes are coming.

Cubs make "safe" pick in 3B Bryant at #2 over highly-touted pitchers

The Cubs used their #2 overall pick in the first-year player draft Thursday to take 6’5” third baseman Kris Bryant from San Diego State. Reports call him the best hitter in the draft, and his 31 home runs this year – in only 62 games - were ten more than anyone else in Division I and more than something like 200 entire teams hit.

Harold Reynolds called it the safest pick in the draft, and I agree. With half the Cub infield locked into long-term deals, no need to futz with Darwin Barney’s hold on second base and a pair of their top minor league prospects being outfielders, it’s a happy coincidence that the top power hitter in the draft plays the position that was the organization’s biggest question mark.

Beyond the home runs, he drove in 62, scored 80 times and drew 66 walks while batting .329 with an OBP of .493. Either he has good plate discipline, pitchers were afraid of him, or both. I'll take that. If Bryant really is the top position player in the draft, by playing a position where the Cubs aren't committed for the long haul, it was a good call. I like when players can jump straight to the majors, which doesn’t happen often and I wouldn’t expect it, but I do expect Bryant to be fast-tracked, and Dale Sveum said he expects to see him at Wrigley before too long. A player who dominates like that at a major university is wasting his time in Rookie ball facing the same kind of players he’s already outclassed.

Pitchers Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray got most of the headlines as the top names in the draft, and Appel was in fact the top overall pick by Houston, but history isn’t on the side of pitchers who go at the top of the draft. I say go ahead and load up on arms further down and hope you strike gold, and the Cubs did that through most of the rest of the draft, but if there's a future Hall of Famer near the top of the draft, it probably isn't a pitcher.

Among players selected among the top-four-overall picks in the draft since its inception in 1965, here’s the list of Hall of Famers: Reggie Jackson (#2, 1966), Robin Yount (#3, 1973), Dave Winfield (#4, 1973), Paul Molitor (#3, 1977), and Barry Larkin (#4, 1985). Ken Griffey (#1, 1987) will soon join them, Chipper Jones (#1, 1990) wouldn’t be a bad bet, and Alex Rodriguez (#1, 1993), well, we’ll have to see how his reputation plays out, but the numbers are there.

That’s not a bad percentage of upper-echelon talent representing 126 picks in the first 29 years of the draft. We’re not talking Veterans’ Committee selections here, Larkin might wind up the only one of the lot who wasn’t inducted on the first ballot, and he didn’t have to wait long. A-Rod’s 2,901 hits so far only ranks fourth among them. Reggie’s 563 homers are good for third. All except Molitor won at least one MVP award, all except Griffey played in a World Series.

And none of them are pitchers.

In fact, not a single pitcher in the Hall was even picked in the first round. Roger Clemens (#19, 1983) is the only eligible first-round pitcher who pitched like a Hall of Famer throughout his career out of at least the first quarter century of the amateur-draft era, and the voters haven’t proven to be too keen on alleged Mitchell List types. Dwight Gooden (#5, 1982) looked like a lead-pipe cinch at 26 with a 132-53 record, but was only 62-59 after that as injuries and his personal demons began to catch up with him.

There isn’t even a second-round pitcher in the Hall. Greg Maddux (2nd round, #31, 1984) would pretty much have to drive over a playground full of children and be found passed out drunk behind the wheel with a trunkload of smack not to snap that streak when he becomes eligible next year, and Tom Glavine (2nd round, #47, 1984) will almost certainly go in with him, but Dennis Eckersley is currently the highest-drafted pitcher to go to Cooperstown, a third-round pick at #50 in 1972.

Think about that. In eighteen years of drafts from 1965-1982 (giving Clemens the benefit of the doubt), through the first 49 picks of each, that gave 851 opportunities for major league scouts to identify a future Hall of Fame pitcher and convince their GM to take a chance on him, and they didn’t find a single one. That doesn't count the old January amateur drafts or supplemental picks, and no Hall of Fame pitchers came from those, either.

Should that really be all that surprising?

How many times have you heard a commentator talk about a pitcher who finally found success when he went from being a thrower to being a pitcher? That’s not something you see in top-rated pitching prospects. If you’re 6’6” and 230 and can rear back and bring the heat at 95 mph against high-school or college kids, you don’t need the same toolbox of skills that you’ll need in the majors. You don’t need to be smart or crafty, you don’t need to mix up your pitch selection and your speeds to get guys out when yours may be the only 95 mph fastball they’ll ever see. Most significantly, if there’s a fundamental flaw in your mechanics, you probably haven’t thrown enough yet to wreck your elbow and/or shoulder.

It’s not the same with non-pitchers. Their livelihood doesn’t depend on repetitive strain on the same muscles and tendons 100 times a day where they’re pushing their bodies to the limit. Yet those are the guys who light up the charts with their stats and get the big press leading up to draft day. Those are the guys where teams don’t want them to fall to someone else first. Kerry Wood (#4, 1995). Mark Prior (#2, 2001). Stephen Strasburg (#1, 2009). Wood had Tommy John surgery after his rookie season, hit the disabled list 14 times in 13 seasons, and made his last start at age 29. Prior made his last major league appearance at 25 and hasn’t thrown more than 25 innings in a season in seven years, still trying to fight his way back. Strasburg, having already had Tommy John surgery and subsequently been shut down in the stretch drive of a pennant race as a precaution, is now back on the disabled list.

That’s not to say the Cubs didn’t benefit by picking Wood and Prior, at least through five games of the 2003 NLCS, but like too many top pitching prospects, they peaked early. Randy Johnson was the #36 pick in 1985, the 17^th pitcher selected, and he didn’t become an impact pitcher until an age where the book was already closed on Prior. Seven pitchers selected ahead of him never made it to the big time, and the best of those who did was Bobby Witt (#3 overall), who wound up at 142-157. Yet in the same draft, ten of the first 14 position players drafted played at least 1,000 games in the majors, including Barry Bonds, Rafael Palmeiro and Will Clark.

So I'm glad the Cubs resisted the temptation to grab Gray. Not just to have a guy who might impact 150+ games a season instead of 32, but to have a better shot for that high-level pick to still be impacting the team ten years down the road.

To Kris Bryant, best of luck, kid. I hope we see you soon, and I'll be following the numbers until we do.

Progress report

We're now just about a third of the way through the season, and the Cubs aren't looking as bad as their position in the standings indicates. I wouldn't exactly go camping out for playoff tickets, but there's a very good chance the Cubs could finish well ahead of expectations even if the three tough teams ahead of them in the NL Central remain there.

What's going well?

They're starting to score runs. They have by far the worst record in MLB among teams that have outscored their opponents over the course of the season, and that's bound to even out in the long run.

Three starting pitchers are doing outstanding work, and Travis Wood in particular has been a very pleasant surprise as a young lefthander putting up quality start after quality start. He's performing like he should be next in line for a long-term extension, not to mention the grand slam he hit today against the White Sox. Despite Sean Marshall pitching as advertised for Cincinnati, the trade is looking like a good one, especially with James Russell (26 appearances, 19.2 IP, 0.92 ERA, 0.86 WHIP) more than capably picking up the lefthanded setup innings he left behind. Scott Feldman is looking like a great free-agent signing now that he's not pitching half his games in one of the game's best hitters' parks. The only major disappointment has been Edwin Jackson, and with Matt Garza's return maybe the Cubs should reconsider using Carlos Villanueva as the swing man and swapping his role with Jackson's until Jackson's numbers settle back down to where he'd been in six years as a starter.

And while the bullpen has been much maligned based on a few publicized train wrecks early on, the overall performance hasn't been as bad as it seems. The harmless run that recent reacquisition Kevin Gregg gave up today was his first in 15 appearances (0.63 ERA). Carlos Marmol has an ERA under 2 since being taken out of the closer's role. With Russell (see above), despite losing Kyuji Fujikawa for the year to Tommy John surgery, that's a pretty solid bullpen. If you have three guys like those to go to when you have a lead, you're going to win a lot of games if you have leads to protect.

The pitchers are hitting. It was cute at first, but their run production out of the nine-slot this month would make a lot of teams happy anywhere in their lineups. Nineteen RBIs by Cub pitchers in May so far, and despite losing plate appearances to the DH in interleague play.

Doubles, doubles, doubles. The Cubs are on record pace, averaging more than two per game. They're also climbing the ranks in home runs, but other than Anthony Rizzo's 10 it's been a balanced attack with six guys at five or six plus now four from the pitching staff.

What's going wrong?

Getting on base. All those doubles and homers don't do a whole lot of good unless there are guys on base ahead of them. They're dead last in the majors in drawing walks, a perpetual problem for the Cubs, and they've already taken 45 fewer than their pitchers have dished out. Until recently, Darwin Barney was the only Cub with more walks than strikeouts, and he recently dipped back down on the other side of that equation. Other than Luis Valbuena, with 21 and 27 respectively, nobody else is even close. Sabermetricians may downplay strikeouts, but if you're racking up the strikeouts, you're not advancing runners, not making productive outs, and not forcing the opposition to make plays that might turn into errors.

Speaking of errors, the Cubs are making a lot of them. The pitching staff alone has nine errors, and their team fielding percentage is near the bottom of the league. You can't go giving away outs like that.

But on the whole...

With the way the pitching staff has been performing since those early bumps in the road, the reconstruction project suddenly looks to be more on track than it did two months ago. Jed and Theo have found real value picking the scrap heap with Gregg, Ryan Sweeney and Julio Borbon making contributions. I expect the Cubs to still be sellers at deadline time, but not as drastically as in the past couple of seasons beyond the usual suspects - Alfonso Soriano and Garza - and possibly some role-players and/or minor-league washouts.

And a rainout notwithstanding, they just swept the White Sox and are riding a season-high four-game winning streak.

So now that the weather has warmed up, the ivy is a nice solid shade of green and everyone's settled into place, show us what you've got, Cubbies.

My apologies...

...on behalf of Cubs fans to Anthony Rizzo for the contract extension he reportedly signed Sunday.

On the one hand, it's awesome that they've locked him up through 2019 with two club option years. I also recognize that $41 million is an awful lot of money to just about everyone on the planet. But in terms of baseball money, even if his development grinds to a halt and he averages exactly the same stats he's produced since coming to the Cubs, a shade under $6 million a year for a middle-lineup left-handed hitter is a bargain.

Especially when considering how much the Angels will be overpaying a 39-year-old Albert Pujols six years from now when his numbers have already been declining for four consecutive seasons, this could wind up being as big of a steal for the Cubs as the deal that brought him to Chicago.

So that makes three Cubs locked up through 2019, Rizzo, Starlin Castro and Jorge Soler. Castro is a two-time All-Star, Rizzo could make his first team this year, and Soler's currently in high-A ball at Daytona, his third step up the ladder in less than a year.

Anyhow, good move, Theo and Jed. Anthony, keep on doing what you're doing and you'll be a hero for life on the north side of Chicago. And the next contract will be huge.

OK, I'm convinced

Anthony Rizzo went 3-for-5 today. That's the same number of hits as the Rockies have against the Cardinals in the last two days.

It's his fifth three-hit game in his last 11 and sixth in his last 15, along with a pair of two-hit games. He's raised his average in that span from .173 to .288, and touched .290 before grounding out in the ninth. That's more like a second-week-of-April boost than a second-week-of-May boost.

Meanwhile, his home run pace has just about ground to a halt. He has one since April 26th, but over the long haul I'd take a .448 average and an 11-homer pace over a .173 and 47-homer pace.

That Cashner-for-Rizzo trade with the Padres is looking more and more like it might one day rank up with the Jenkins and Sandberg trades. Stay tuned.

Instant results

I've long been saying Starlin Castro should be back in the leadoff slot. In his first game of the year there, tonight against Washington he opened the game with a double and advanced and scored on a pair of groundouts. Anthony Rizzo picked up the RBI.

When your leadoff man gets into scoring position with nobody out, good things happen. Not only is Castro one of the league leaders in doubles since his callup three years ago, but he can single and steal a base to get the job done too. Let's see more of this, Dale Sveum.

UPDATE: Two at-bats, two doubles, the second driving in a run.

Stats of the Day: Rizzo and Feldman

You might want to scratch that part about Anthony Rizzo in my April 28 post. In the Cubs' last 11 games, Rizzo is batting .439 (18-for-41) to raise his average from .173 to .262.

To fill that out a bit, last night he tallied his fourth three-hit game in that span. Eight runs scored, 11 RBIs, seven doubles, three homers, three stolen bases, six walks and six Ks. A .521 on-base percentage and an .829 slugging percentage give him an OPS of 1.350. On the year, he's one behind Starlin Castro and David DeJesus for the team lead in runs scored (17 in 32 games), is second in hits (32) and leads in home runs (9), RBIs (32), walks (13, tied) and stolen bases (4, tied). He's played every inning so far and he doesn't turn 24 until August 8th. Theoretically his numbers will even out as he grows into veteran status, but even if he remains a hot-and-cold type of hitter, it would be a very good sign if he ever pops off a three-hit game to open a playoff series.

And how about Scott Feldman, following up a complete-game three-hitter with seven innings of scoreless, two-hit ball last night? He even tacked on an RBI single and scored a run. I classified the starting pitching the Cubs acquired over the winter as middle-rotation arms, but Feldman's last three outings have made him look like he could be a valuable piece in a short series.

The overall 12-20 record is nothing to shout about, but if you focus on what's going well, this could evolve into a turning-point developmental year.

The seventh-inning stretch

Gary Sinese sang "Take Me Out to the Ball Game" today. He wasn't bad, there have certainly been worse singers, as well as people with no business being up there in the first place, and at least he's a local and known to be One of Us, but it got me thinking about the whole procedure. I admire Sinese, but the rotating celebrity thing is getting old. Actually, it got old a long time ago.

The people I like the most up there are the former ballplayers, and there's no shortage of former Cubs. With few exceptions (like Milton Bradley), once a Cub, always a Cub as far as I'm concerned. Sure, they bring out Ernie and Billy and Fergie and the Rebel, and of course Zonk, since he's there every day. But it shouldn't be hard to drum up 76 more former Cubs a year.

I'd rather see Herman Segelke go up there than some random person with no connection to the team. Hector Cruz is still in town, I hear he's a mailman on the north side and the people on his route say he's a nice guy. Why can't he sing? Players, managers, coaches, announcers, Tom Ricketts once a year, people like Yosh Kawano or Bob Rosenberg or Marla Collins, I'd even be down with top-seniority ushers or concession people or groundskeepers once in awhile. The Cubs' first pick in the draft every year would be nice, or their minor-league player of the year.

Other than that, guests from outside the Cubs family should be rare. Bob Uecker if the Brewers are in town, sure. He's awesome, and he's a classy guy. Same goes for Vin Scully. Tommy Lasorda, he's not one of us, but he gets it.

And every now and then, they should play a tape of Harry Caray for old time's sake.

But Hollywood types who couldn't name five Cubs with a scorecard in their hands, drunken Ozzy, outofbreathMikeDitka, the Nobody-Cares-Except-Alumni High School state champs from a sport you've forgotten by the time they get to "buy me some peanuts", that really has to go.

Progress Report

We're now 23 games into the 2013 season, and clearly the Cubs aren't exactly world-beaters, but really, only blind optimism would cause expectations to be much beyond than the 9-14 record where they currently sit.

Their current three-game win streak, all against the hapless Marlins, has more or less coincided with Darwin Barney returning from the disabled list and getting his feet wet. After struggling at the plate in his first five games, in the past five he's put up a pair of multi-hit games, contributed a game-winning extra-inning home run and Friday made a highlight-reel snag of an errant throw to second by Scott Feldman to save a double-play.

Barney's absence I think was bigger than expected. We knew the Cubs were toast in 2006 the moment Derrek Lee was hurt, and relying too heavily on Aramis Ramirez staying healthy enough to produce runs was a long-term concern, but for a little guy with limited power who doesn't hit for high average, the Cubs were rudderless without their Gold Glover on the field. Two errors in his last 192 games at second is world-class.

Injuries are a huge X factor in determining what the Cubs really have to work with this year. Poor Steve Clevenger can't seem to catch a break, and is on the 60-day DL. We can only guess when Matt Garza and Scott Baker will debut in the rotation, and Arodys Vizcaino has yet to step on a field after his acquisition last July. Kyuji Fujikawa lasted exactly one day as the official closer before a forearm strain sidelined him.

As for my preseason concerns, Anthony Rizzo has been a real head-shaker. While hovering around the .200 mark, he's set the Cubs' April record for homers by a left-handed hitter and driven in twice as many runs as any of his teammates. Clearly his power is a force to be reckoned with, but strikeouts and consistency are concerns, and I don't think this month has really given us any idea of what to expect two or three years down the road.

And as for my concern over the closer role, that's still up in the air too. At least Carlos Marmol is out as the go-to guy, and his ERA started falling back to earth as soon as he was taken out of the role. The walk totals are dangerously high, but otherwise the numbers are old-school setup-man Marmol. Hits are way down, strikeouts are up, and he's only given up one inherited run and none of his own in his last nine appearances over a total of nine innings pitched. I'd wager none of his many detractors have even noticed, but if Dale Sveum keeps using him the way he has over the past two weeks, people will eventually start paying attention. If his Cub future lies as trade bait, the rest of the league will be noticing as well. In the meantime, Fujikawa should be eligible to return today, and he said when he went down that the forearm strain has happened before and is a 10-day recovery. We'll see.

Beyond that, I've started to question the coaching staff. Dale Sveum has called out his team over fundamentals, when really that should come down to coaching. There are only three position players over 30 on the roster, and with a team that's banking on its revamped farm system to come through when they're ready to compete regularly, they're going to be in serious trouble if their coaches and manager can't bring out the best of a roster full of young players.

The more things change...

It doesn't matter if the Cubs began the season on the road, there's something special about the day of the home opener, even writing from 1,000 miles away.

Seeing the ballpark in action for the first time in months, the ivy brown and still waiting to come back to life, it doesn't matter if you're expecting to lose 87 games. You've made it through another long winter. There's a sense of promise, of hope. It means eighty-one more times we'll see that familiar scoreboard full of numbers, where the ones that matter most are between the red lines in the lower left corner.

That was threatened this off-season. It's happened before, typically little more than political posturing and puffery, mostly hot air. This time the mayor of Rosemont injected himself into the conversation via the media, like the skeezy guy at the bar witnessing a couple fighting and telling his buddy with a jab of the elbow that, "If things don't work out, I'll treat her right. You know what I'm sayin'?"

In the end, we all know something will be worked out. The Cubs have been in Chicago since 1876, the only team that's been a constant in one city since the beginning of the league. There may be a Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the other league, or a New York Giants of East Rutherford in football, but for a ballclub that markets itself on tradition, the Chicago Cubs of Rosemont just wouldn't seem right.

Somehow or another, changes will be made without changes being made. While people talk about Wrigley Field as if it's been untouched since the Chicago Whales played there, every generation of Cub fans has seen major changes to their longtime home, and life still went on. The kids of today will tell their kids about sitting in the old bleachers, or before whatever changes the Ricketts family has in mind. My generation watched lights installed, one section at a time through the first half of the 1988 season, and seeing the bottom section of the scoreboard grow from a digital clock (beneath... an actual clock...) to a message board to a bigger message board to a bigger one - never mind that the original scoreboard would be unrecognizable to a modern-day Cub fan. We also watched year by year as a couple of guys standing around on top of buildings across the street evolved into a bunch of guys, rudimentary bleachers, then major construction and exclusive clubs. My dad talks about when the basket went up, and seeing games before the batters-eye section in center field was blocked off. My grandfather talked about going to games before the ivy, the scoreboard and even the upper deck were installed.

A little bit here, a little bit there, it's all changed except the address made famous by the Blues Brothers.

"I falsified my renewal. I put down 1060 West Addison."
"1060 West Addison? ... That's Wrigley Field!"
"Yup."

For the 100th time, today baseball will be played there for the first time of the new year. Let's go, batter up. I'm taking the afternoon off.

How's that for starters?

It's always nice to open the season with an impressive win. Jeff Samardzija looked sharp and was efficient with his pitch count in tossing eight innings of two-hit ball over the up-and-coming Pirates, and Anthony Rizzo made a couple of nice plays at first in addition to launching a first-pitch blast beyond the bleachers in right in his first plate appearance. Carlos Marmol was shaky, but James Russell got a big out and Kyuji Fujikawa latched down a two-pitch save in his major league debut.

I'm an eternal optimist where the Cubs are concerned, but I'm not exactly counting on a playoff run just yet. The focus of this season, to me, should be the continuing development of young players as we see what long-term solutions are already in place.

Rizzo is my main concern. Obviously he got off to a promising start yesterday, but this is his first real test as an everyday first-baseman and middle-lineup hitter over a full season. The Cubs will be counting on him as an anchor, and I'm anxious to see how he's capable of performing once he shows more consistency than he did in 2012 and we have a good idea of what to expect year-in and year-out. Last year he had two extended hot spells and two extended cold spells that still averaged out to some impressive overall numbers for a 22-year-old. The league will make adjustments to him and vice-versa, but I already like his defense. The question remains, will Rizzo be a solid big leaguer, an all-star or something very special? We'll have a better idea six months from now.

My next concern is the closer role. I stand by my long-term judgment that Marmol is best suited as a setup man, and so far I think Dale Sveum is underestimating Fujikawa's potential. His numbers in Japan were flat-out ridiculous - six of the past eight seasons with an ERA of 1.36 or better - over a long enough span that we can say the Cubs haven't spent their money based on a peak year (see Milton Bradley) or after a down-year or two with the hope of recovery (see Kosuke Fukudome). The baseball gods were trying to tell us something in forcing an unexpected Opening Day appearance, and I expect a lot of regrets around the league in allowing the Cubs to grab him as a relative bargain. There's a very good chance he could become one of the elite closers in the game. Regardless, I see the Cub bullpen overall as one of their strengths.

Beyond that, I'll be spending more time than usual this season following the farm system. I'll have my eye on the Class A Daytona Cubs in particular, to see how long it takes Javier Baez and Jorge Soler to make the jump to either AA Tennessee or AAA Iowa. I'll be watching Arodys Vizcaino's recovery from Tommy John surgery to see how the Paul Maholm/Reed Johnson trade pans out.

Like 2012, there's still a lot of guesswork, but we'll have a better idea of how the rebuild is going and what moves will still need to be made as the season moves along.

Rebuild, Year 2

It may be too soon to tell when the Cubs will be ready to compete year after year, which is the goal of the new administration, but I like how the rebuild is going.

It's safe to say this year will be better than the last. The 61-101 record was deceptive - at no time did the Cubs play like a 101-loss team. They were a 90-loss team before the deadline trades and a 115-loss team after them, but unless you're in the running for a playoff spot, your win-loss record is irrelevant.

Playing for pride sounds good on paper - it might have been nice to avoid a 100-loss season - but if you're rebuilding your franchise, there's no point in keeping players who aren't part of the long-term plan. Get what you can, for whomever you can, while you can. Hope that your Doyle Alexander can bring you somebody's unknown John Smoltz.

One of the major benefits of not competing is that the Cubs were able to give some of their young talent a good look at the major league level. We saw that Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters weren't ready to face big-league pitching everyday, but Anthony Rizzo is. We saw that Jeff Samardzija could make the transition from reliever to starter.

At the very least, three of the eight daily starters are in place, and all are all-star caliber.

Starlin Castro has been there before. I'm not sold on turning him into a middle-lineup hitter just yet, but last year provided the opportunity to try new things with someone who led the league in hits at age 21. His defense continues to improve, as well as his attention span, and I like his range. He's locked down for a good long time, and I'm looking forward to him becoming the Cubs' version of Derek Jeter with better wheels and more doubles and triples. Driving in 78 runs in 2012 is a nice total considering how many opportunities he had, but I see him more as the one being driven in rather than the one who puts the numbers on the scoreboard.

Darwin Barney won his first gold glove last year while setting a league record for consecutive errorless games at second base. He won't hit like Ryne Sandberg, but stellar defense like his will save a lot of runs in the long term. He's a few years older than the guys on either side of him, but at 27 he's not exactly long in the tooth and will remain an inexpensive key to the everyday lineup. As he and Castro continue to play side by side every day, their instincts in relation to where the other will be on double-play balls will only improve.

Anthony Rizzo is a star in the making. The Andrew Cashner trade is already looking like one of the better ones in Cubs history. In addition to showing power at a pace that could give him his first 30-homer season as early as this year and a potential lock for 100+ RBI if there are enough runners on base in front of him, I like his defense. Plus-defense at first, second and short has been a luxury even for some of the Cubs' best teams.

That sets 3/4 of the infield for the long term. Third base is still anybody's guess. I don't see Luis Valbuena or Josh Vitters being part of the winning formula, but the jury's still out on Vitters, who, at 23, is still young enough where he can make major strides offensively with more minor-league seasoning. Clearly he's not ready to face big-league pitching on an everyday basis. I'm not sure what to make of Ian Stewart, but his durability is a question even if he does return to the form that made him an everyday starter in Colorado, and if he does return to form, I see him as a midseason trade piece.

Personally, I'd continue to keep an eye on how Javier Baez and Christian Villanueva develop this year. I was particularly impressed with the burst of power Baez put up over the past few days, knocking four homers in two days. I like his quick wrists and he gets the bat through the zone in the blink of an eye. For a 20-year-old, his potential upside is huge. While he's still projected as a shortstop, Castro isn't going anywhere. Villanueva, who came over from Texas in the Ryan Dempster trade, has shown some pop this spring as well and is a natural third-baseman. If we're looking down the road for the Cubs to be competitive, the answers will be clearer by next spring. There's plenty of time to make that call.

The outfield is a big question mark. I don't see any of the outfielders going north with the team in April being part of the long-term formula.

Alfonso Soriano's monster contract ends after 2014, and while he clearly was the big gun of a somewhat toothless offense last year, I'm looking at him to help Theo and Jed raid somebody's top prospects in a deadline deal either this year or next. I've been impressed with how that's worked out so far.

The rest of the outfield is veterans on short-term deals; capable, but none who will turn the game on its ear in Nate Schierholtz, Scott Hairston and David DeJesus. The future lies in the minor leagues, with Brett Jackson, Jorge Soler and Albert Almora drawing most of the headlines. With only Jackson established as a professional, like the third base situation, we'll know more in a year's time.

Behind the plate, I like the addition of Dioner Navarro. For a veteran with a couple of playoff runs and a pennant under his belt, at 29 he's still a relative youngster. Welington Castillo was shown to be the favorite home-grown catcher last year, but I wouldn't count out Steve Clevenger. He got off to a torrid start in 2012 before hitting the DL with a strained oblique, and has had a promising spring this year. The most important aspect of catching is handling a pitching staff, however, and with a former all-star in Navarro in the mix, the best chance for either Castillo or Clevenger to continue developing might be at AAA rather than as a backup at the major league level.

That leaves the pitching staff, which was the primary focus of off-season transactions. Currently it looks like a rotation full of mid-rotation-caliber righties, depending on the health of Matt Garza and Scott Baker. Serviceable veterans with some postseason experience, but nothing earth-shattering. Last season showed there isn't a wealth of talent on the minor-league level there yet, with the possible exception of lefty Chris Rusin.

The bullpen is a different story. I like this Cub bullpen even without Sean Marshall, who was on the wrong end of perhaps the only misstep in Theo and Jed's first series of moves. Trade rumors continue to center around Carlos Marmol, though I wouldn't be disappointed if they amount to nothing. My only objection with Marmol is his role in the pen. He proved himself to be an elite setup man, and they should have kept him there. Adding Japanese star Kyuji Fujikawa was a big plus, and I'd like to see the forecast roles for him and Marmol switched, but I wouldn't count on it.

Beyond them, James Russell had an outstanding first half last year and much like Marshall is the kind of left-handed reliever every competitive team needs. Shawn Camp had a fine season in 2012 while leading the league in games pitched. I like new addition Carlos Villanueva as the swing man. Michael Bowden was an outright steal coming over in the Marlon Byrd trade. It's become a cliche that every team could use some help in the bullpen, but I'm not worried about the Cubs in that department. A far greater concern is getting them leads to hold down.

We're still learning about what we have here, but there's a solid foundation minus a few key pieces. Expect the Cubs to be active at deadline time again this year and more minor-league systems to be raided. Projection? With a rotation and an outfield full of actual major league veterans, I could see them making a run at .500 and finishing a few games short, depending on who's still around by August. Not great, and there's a shot at a last-place finish with Houston out of the picture and the Pirates threatening to end their record string of sub-.500 seasons for the past two years, but the Cubs' future looks brighter than it did a year ago, and things are only going to improve.

MIssing stats

While I appreciate some of the new methods of player evaluation brought about by Bill James and the Sabermetrics crowd, there's still a need for ones that focus on quantifying winning baseball and team play.

W+/- Wins Plus-Minus

Wins minus losses. Did the manager use that reliever to mop up in hopeless causes? Was the team that much better in their starting catcher's 135 games than in the 27 he missed? W+/- could tell you without having to slog through all the game logs.

While the new-math stathounds insist wins is an overrated statistic, at least for pitchers, I totally disagree. Whether in baseball or in life, some people inspire confidence and make everyone step up a notch just by being around. When Derrek Lee was injured in 2006, the Cubs lost more than a bat in the lineup and solid defense, they lost their anchor. A team that was 9-5 and half a game out of first through that game found themselves at 28-45 when he came back.

R+/- Runs Plus-Minus

Runs that a player’s team scores in excess of the opposition, while the player is in the game - a performance stat that removes the factor of high-scoring or low-scoring games. One of hockey's best stats, adapted to baseball.

RA - Runners Advanced

All bases advanced by runners, excluding the batter. This recognizes batters who hit with runners on base, make sure they’re the out on a fielder’s choice, make sacrifices, reach on errors and advance runners by two bases on a single or three on a double, which may not be all that valuable apart from runs and RBI in traditional statistics, but all of which are valuable aspects of team play. It also identifies pitchers who often get into trouble - two relievers with similar WHIPs and ERAs but different RAs would indicate which is more likely to be one minor slipup from a lead change in a tight ballgame.

BA - Bases Advanced

Similar to runners advanced. No matter how you get on or move up, it counts. Good stat for table setters. Whether you hit the ball or not, if you score, you get 4 BAs. If you advance to third and fail to score through no fault of your own, at least it counts for something. Bat your best BA hitters ahead of your best RA hitters. Tracking BA in addition to WHIP can help evaluate relief pitchers

RAA/BAA – Runners/Bases Advanced Average

Runners advanced divided by runners on base, and bases advanced divided by plate appearances. The averages remove factors such as mid-season callups or trades, injured players and bench players.

FC – Fielder’s Choice

Why put it on the scorecard if you’re not going to keep a tally? Batters with lots of FCs make contact with runners on base, and in a lucky year where the hops go their way, they could translate into runs. Pitchers with lots of FCs stay out of big innings and work their way out of jams, but in an unlucky year when the hops don't go their way, they could translate into runs.

Just a few ideas off the top of my head. I find WAR to be a deeply flawed pseudo-stat considering its increasing prominence - more on that later - but as a numbers geek I see no reason to keep looking for better ways to more thoroughly evaluate players' performances.