Tuesday, April 02, 2013

How's that for starters?

It's always nice to open the season with an impressive win. Jeff Samardzija looked sharp and was efficient with his pitch count in tossing eight innings of two-hit ball over the up-and-coming Pirates, and Anthony Rizzo made a couple of nice plays at first in addition to launching a first-pitch blast beyond the bleachers in right in his first plate appearance. Carlos Marmol was shaky, but James Russell got a big out and Kyuji Fujikawa latched down a two-pitch save in his major league debut.

I'm an eternal optimist where the Cubs are concerned, but I'm not exactly counting on a playoff run just yet. The focus of this season, to me, should be the continuing development of young players as we see what long-term solutions are already in place.

Rizzo is my main concern. Obviously he got off to a promising start yesterday, but this is his first real test as an everyday first-baseman and middle-lineup hitter over a full season. The Cubs will be counting on him as an anchor, and I'm anxious to see how he's capable of performing once he shows more consistency than he did in 2012 and we have a good idea of what to expect year-in and year-out. Last year he had two extended hot spells and two extended cold spells that still averaged out to some impressive overall numbers for a 22-year-old. The league will make adjustments to him and vice-versa, but I already like his defense. The question remains, will Rizzo be a solid big leaguer, an all-star or something very special? We'll have a better idea six months from now.

My next concern is the closer role. I stand by my long-term judgment that Marmol is best suited as a setup man, and so far I think Dale Sveum is underestimating Fujikawa's potential. His numbers in Japan were flat-out ridiculous - six of the past eight seasons with an ERA of 1.36 or better - over a long enough span that we can say the Cubs haven't spent their money based on a peak year (see Milton Bradley) or after a down-year or two with the hope of recovery (see Kosuke Fukudome). The baseball gods were trying to tell us something in forcing an unexpected Opening Day appearance, and I expect a lot of regrets around the league in allowing the Cubs to grab him as a relative bargain. There's a very good chance he could become one of the elite closers in the game. Regardless, I see the Cub bullpen overall as one of their strengths.

Beyond that, I'll be spending more time than usual this season following the farm system. I'll have my eye on the Class A Daytona Cubs in particular, to see how long it takes Javier Baez and Jorge Soler to make the jump to either AA Tennessee or AAA Iowa. I'll be watching Arodys Vizcaino's recovery from Tommy John surgery to see how the Paul Maholm/Reed Johnson trade pans out.

Like 2012, there's still a lot of guesswork, but we'll have a better idea of how the rebuild is going and what moves will still need to be made as the season moves along.

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