Progress report

We're now just about a third of the way through the season, and the Cubs aren't looking as bad as their position in the standings indicates. I wouldn't exactly go camping out for playoff tickets, but there's a very good chance the Cubs could finish well ahead of expectations even if the three tough teams ahead of them in the NL Central remain there.

What's going well?

They're starting to score runs. They have by far the worst record in MLB among teams that have outscored their opponents over the course of the season, and that's bound to even out in the long run.

Three starting pitchers are doing outstanding work, and Travis Wood in particular has been a very pleasant surprise as a young lefthander putting up quality start after quality start. He's performing like he should be next in line for a long-term extension, not to mention the grand slam he hit today against the White Sox. Despite Sean Marshall pitching as advertised for Cincinnati, the trade is looking like a good one, especially with James Russell (26 appearances, 19.2 IP, 0.92 ERA, 0.86 WHIP) more than capably picking up the lefthanded setup innings he left behind. Scott Feldman is looking like a great free-agent signing now that he's not pitching half his games in one of the game's best hitters' parks. The only major disappointment has been Edwin Jackson, and with Matt Garza's return maybe the Cubs should reconsider using Carlos Villanueva as the swing man and swapping his role with Jackson's until Jackson's numbers settle back down to where he'd been in six years as a starter.

And while the bullpen has been much maligned based on a few publicized train wrecks early on, the overall performance hasn't been as bad as it seems. The harmless run that recent reacquisition Kevin Gregg gave up today was his first in 15 appearances (0.63 ERA). Carlos Marmol has an ERA under 2 since being taken out of the closer's role. With Russell (see above), despite losing Kyuji Fujikawa for the year to Tommy John surgery, that's a pretty solid bullpen. If you have three guys like those to go to when you have a lead, you're going to win a lot of games if you have leads to protect.

The pitchers are hitting. It was cute at first, but their run production out of the nine-slot this month would make a lot of teams happy anywhere in their lineups. Nineteen RBIs by Cub pitchers in May so far, and despite losing plate appearances to the DH in interleague play.

Doubles, doubles, doubles. The Cubs are on record pace, averaging more than two per game. They're also climbing the ranks in home runs, but other than Anthony Rizzo's 10 it's been a balanced attack with six guys at five or six plus now four from the pitching staff.

What's going wrong?

Getting on base. All those doubles and homers don't do a whole lot of good unless there are guys on base ahead of them. They're dead last in the majors in drawing walks, a perpetual problem for the Cubs, and they've already taken 45 fewer than their pitchers have dished out. Until recently, Darwin Barney was the only Cub with more walks than strikeouts, and he recently dipped back down on the other side of that equation. Other than Luis Valbuena, with 21 and 27 respectively, nobody else is even close. Sabermetricians may downplay strikeouts, but if you're racking up the strikeouts, you're not advancing runners, not making productive outs, and not forcing the opposition to make plays that might turn into errors.

Speaking of errors, the Cubs are making a lot of them. The pitching staff alone has nine errors, and their team fielding percentage is near the bottom of the league. You can't go giving away outs like that.

But on the whole...

With the way the pitching staff has been performing since those early bumps in the road, the reconstruction project suddenly looks to be more on track than it did two months ago. Jed and Theo have found real value picking the scrap heap with Gregg, Ryan Sweeney and Julio Borbon making contributions. I expect the Cubs to still be sellers at deadline time, but not as drastically as in the past couple of seasons beyond the usual suspects - Alfonso Soriano and Garza - and possibly some role-players and/or minor-league washouts.

And a rainout notwithstanding, they just swept the White Sox and are riding a season-high four-game winning streak.

So now that the weather has warmed up, the ivy is a nice solid shade of green and everyone's settled into place, show us what you've got, Cubbies.

My apologies...

...on behalf of Cubs fans to Anthony Rizzo for the contract extension he reportedly signed Sunday.

On the one hand, it's awesome that they've locked him up through 2019 with two club option years. I also recognize that $41 million is an awful lot of money to just about everyone on the planet. But in terms of baseball money, even if his development grinds to a halt and he averages exactly the same stats he's produced since coming to the Cubs, a shade under $6 million a year for a middle-lineup left-handed hitter is a bargain.

Especially when considering how much the Angels will be overpaying a 39-year-old Albert Pujols six years from now when his numbers have already been declining for four consecutive seasons, this could wind up being as big of a steal for the Cubs as the deal that brought him to Chicago.

So that makes three Cubs locked up through 2019, Rizzo, Starlin Castro and Jorge Soler. Castro is a two-time All-Star, Rizzo could make his first team this year, and Soler's currently in high-A ball at Daytona, his third step up the ladder in less than a year.

Anyhow, good move, Theo and Jed. Anthony, keep on doing what you're doing and you'll be a hero for life on the north side of Chicago. And the next contract will be huge.

OK, I'm convinced

Anthony Rizzo went 3-for-5 today. That's the same number of hits as the Rockies have against the Cardinals in the last two days.

It's his fifth three-hit game in his last 11 and sixth in his last 15, along with a pair of two-hit games. He's raised his average in that span from .173 to .288, and touched .290 before grounding out in the ninth. That's more like a second-week-of-April boost than a second-week-of-May boost.

Meanwhile, his home run pace has just about ground to a halt. He has one since April 26th, but over the long haul I'd take a .448 average and an 11-homer pace over a .173 and 47-homer pace.

That Cashner-for-Rizzo trade with the Padres is looking more and more like it might one day rank up with the Jenkins and Sandberg trades. Stay tuned.

Instant results

I've long been saying Starlin Castro should be back in the leadoff slot. In his first game of the year there, tonight against Washington he opened the game with a double and advanced and scored on a pair of groundouts. Anthony Rizzo picked up the RBI.

When your leadoff man gets into scoring position with nobody out, good things happen. Not only is Castro one of the league leaders in doubles since his callup three years ago, but he can single and steal a base to get the job done too. Let's see more of this, Dale Sveum.

UPDATE: Two at-bats, two doubles, the second driving in a run.

Stats of the Day: Rizzo and Feldman

You might want to scratch that part about Anthony Rizzo in my April 28 post. In the Cubs' last 11 games, Rizzo is batting .439 (18-for-41) to raise his average from .173 to .262.

To fill that out a bit, last night he tallied his fourth three-hit game in that span. Eight runs scored, 11 RBIs, seven doubles, three homers, three stolen bases, six walks and six Ks. A .521 on-base percentage and an .829 slugging percentage give him an OPS of 1.350. On the year, he's one behind Starlin Castro and David DeJesus for the team lead in runs scored (17 in 32 games), is second in hits (32) and leads in home runs (9), RBIs (32), walks (13, tied) and stolen bases (4, tied). He's played every inning so far and he doesn't turn 24 until August 8th. Theoretically his numbers will even out as he grows into veteran status, but even if he remains a hot-and-cold type of hitter, it would be a very good sign if he ever pops off a three-hit game to open a playoff series.

And how about Scott Feldman, following up a complete-game three-hitter with seven innings of scoreless, two-hit ball last night? He even tacked on an RBI single and scored a run. I classified the starting pitching the Cubs acquired over the winter as middle-rotation arms, but Feldman's last three outings have made him look like he could be a valuable piece in a short series.

The overall 12-20 record is nothing to shout about, but if you focus on what's going well, this could evolve into a turning-point developmental year.

The seventh-inning stretch

Gary Sinese sang "Take Me Out to the Ball Game" today. He wasn't bad, there have certainly been worse singers, as well as people with no business being up there in the first place, and at least he's a local and known to be One of Us, but it got me thinking about the whole procedure. I admire Sinese, but the rotating celebrity thing is getting old. Actually, it got old a long time ago.

The people I like the most up there are the former ballplayers, and there's no shortage of former Cubs. With few exceptions (like Milton Bradley), once a Cub, always a Cub as far as I'm concerned. Sure, they bring out Ernie and Billy and Fergie and the Rebel, and of course Zonk, since he's there every day. But it shouldn't be hard to drum up 76 more former Cubs a year.

I'd rather see Herman Segelke go up there than some random person with no connection to the team. Hector Cruz is still in town, I hear he's a mailman on the north side and the people on his route say he's a nice guy. Why can't he sing? Players, managers, coaches, announcers, Tom Ricketts once a year, people like Yosh Kawano or Bob Rosenberg or Marla Collins, I'd even be down with top-seniority ushers or concession people or groundskeepers once in awhile. The Cubs' first pick in the draft every year would be nice, or their minor-league player of the year.

Other than that, guests from outside the Cubs family should be rare. Bob Uecker if the Brewers are in town, sure. He's awesome, and he's a classy guy. Same goes for Vin Scully. Tommy Lasorda, he's not one of us, but he gets it.

And every now and then, they should play a tape of Harry Caray for old time's sake.

But Hollywood types who couldn't name five Cubs with a scorecard in their hands, drunken Ozzy, outofbreathMikeDitka, the Nobody-Cares-Except-Alumni High School state champs from a sport you've forgotten by the time they get to "buy me some peanuts", that really has to go.