For a 10-12 team, the Cubs have remarkable offensive numbers. While Derrek Lee (.203) and Aramis Ramirez (.155) are struggling mightily for balls to fall in, most everyone else is getting the job done.
Geovany Soto leads the pack with a .362 batting average and an on-base percentage of .516. That's not a misprint, Soto has reached base in more than half of his plate appearances through more than ten percent of the season.
Ryan Theriot has developed a knack for multi-hit games - seven of them during his current eight-game hitting streak - and is at .333 through today's loss. He leads the league in hits, five stolen bases put him in the top 10, and he's even managed to drive in 10 runs. It's nice to see him producing at the top of the order. I've been suggesting it for three years.
Marlon Byrd has done a fine job both at the plate and in the field, also hitting .333 and leading the team in RBI. A great free-agent signing at a bargain price. Milton who?
The record skips again with Kosuke "Mr. April" Fukudome, another .333 with an OBP of .423, and even starter Randy Wells is 3-for-9 at the plate. And Tyler Colvin is at .325, Mike Fontenot at .308. Starlin Castro (.377 with 18 RBI in 18 games at AA Tennessee) will just have to wait.
That gives the Cubs a lineup option with six players batting over .300, seven if Wells is pitching, and Alfonso Soriano is one multi-hit game away at .292. Yet with the exception of the recent series against the Brewers, they have trouble pushing all those runners over and in, particularly in tight games. I think it's time to shuffle the lineup. Here's my suggestion:
1 - SS - Ryan Theriot
2 - RF - Kosuke Fukudome
3 - C - Geovany Soto
4 - CF - Marlon Byrd
5 - LF - Tyler Colvin or Alfonso Soriano
6 - 2B - Mike Fontenot
7 - 1B - Derrek Lee
8 - 3B - Aramis Ramirez
If your 3-4 hitters are both struggling at the same time, you're going to leave runners on base and have trouble winning games. I'm not saying Lee and Ramirez should remain at the back even beyond the upcoming series against Arizona - Lee shares the team lead in walks and has a respectable OBP of .326, and Ramirez has quietly extended a hitting streak to five games, showing that the worst is probably over - but just shake things up a bit and put all the hot bats in a row to make the most of the opportunities they create. I want more dogpiling like in the Brewers series, especially against a Diamondbacks team that always seems to give the Cubs headaches.
And my wacky idea of the day is to see if Tyler Colvin can play any first base - he never has in pro ball - to occasionally spell D-Lee and get his bat in the lineup more often. Put him there during batting practice, and maybe give him a couple of late innings in the next 8-2 game to see what happens. At age 24, he could have a bright future in Chicago for a long time. Until there's an everyday spot for him - barring a trade that means 2012, after Fukudome's contract ends - every bit of versatility beyond playing all three outfield positions will make him that much more ready when the Cubs can give him 600 at-bats a year.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Friday, April 23, 2010
Surprise, surprise
I'll admit I was surprised to see Carlos Zambrano moved into a setup role, which he is expected to take on Saturday. Obviously given the size of his contract this is a temporary move, but I did dump him from my fantasy league.
Big Z has traditionally been a slow starter. While the Cubs keep starting him on opening day, his record in those starts is less than exceptional. He's been beaten up so far in 2010, but hasn't exactly given up rocket shots off the walls or into the seats, rather a lot of Texas-league loopers that added up to disaster.
To brag a bit, so far my preseason projections are looking good. Carlos Silva has made the Bradley trade look like a stroke of genius (though even if he had Tommy John surgery it would still be a good trade), and Tom Gorzelanny and for the most part Sean Marshall have both pitched well. Geovany Soto has been on a tear after a slow start, the three outfield starters are collectively hitting over .300, Mike Fontenot has improved on his 2009 production so far, and there have been questions about middle relief, particularly with a couple of the unproven younger guys. Aramis Ramirez is off to an awful start, and while that long-term injury fortunately hasn't happened, it does appear that the Cubs can't win without him contributing. Oh, and Carlos Marmol has an earned run average of 1.17.
So let's hope the Cubs can put their New York trip behind them, and that the Brewers are burned out after outscoring the Pirates 36-1 in a three-game sweep and handing them their worst loss in their 129 seasons in a 20-0 rout.
Big Z has traditionally been a slow starter. While the Cubs keep starting him on opening day, his record in those starts is less than exceptional. He's been beaten up so far in 2010, but hasn't exactly given up rocket shots off the walls or into the seats, rather a lot of Texas-league loopers that added up to disaster.
To brag a bit, so far my preseason projections are looking good. Carlos Silva has made the Bradley trade look like a stroke of genius (though even if he had Tommy John surgery it would still be a good trade), and Tom Gorzelanny and for the most part Sean Marshall have both pitched well. Geovany Soto has been on a tear after a slow start, the three outfield starters are collectively hitting over .300, Mike Fontenot has improved on his 2009 production so far, and there have been questions about middle relief, particularly with a couple of the unproven younger guys. Aramis Ramirez is off to an awful start, and while that long-term injury fortunately hasn't happened, it does appear that the Cubs can't win without him contributing. Oh, and Carlos Marmol has an earned run average of 1.17.
So let's hope the Cubs can put their New York trip behind them, and that the Brewers are burned out after outscoring the Pirates 36-1 in a three-game sweep and handing them their worst loss in their 129 seasons in a 20-0 rout.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Carlos Marmol, you are RIDICULOUS!
I'd still send them back to the American League if I was commissioner, but there's always high drama when the Cubs face the Brewers. Yesterday was no exception.
Ryan Theriot and Kosuke Fukudome sparked a seventh-inning rally Wednesday to trim a run off the Milwaukeeans' 4-2 lead, and after the Brewers scored twice in the top half of eighth, the same two guys each hit a two-run single in the bottom half to give the Cubs a 7-6 win.
Not to be lost in the excitement was the performance of Carlos Marmol. For the second time in his last three outings, he struck out all three batters he faced to nail down the save. No slouches, either - the meat and potatoes of the Brewers' lineup in Corey Hart, Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder; all of them all-stars, all of them swinging.
Marmol is 14-for-14 in save opportunities since taking over the closer's role from Kevin Gregg late last August. He's struck out nine of the 16 batters he's faced in four and a third innings so far in 2010, allowing one hit and two walks. A bit of math tells you that more guys have struck out against him this year than have even hit fair balls. While I'm biased toward my Cubbies, I'm entertaining the possibility that the Cubs could have a Mariano Rivera-type closer on their hands for a good long time.
I'm a bit young to vividly remember the Bruce Sutter era on the north side, but I've seen a lot of closers come and go without the dominating stuff Marmol has. Big Lee Smith never gave me that confidence in the endgame; neither did Rich Gossage, Mitch Williams, Rick Aguilera, Randy Myers, Tom Gordon, Rod Beck, Antonio Alfonseca, Joe Borowski, LaTroy Hawkins, Ryan Dempster, Kerry Wood, Kevin Gregg... see where I'm going with this?
The Cubs aren't very well represented on the list of single-season save leaders. The two over 50 in a season, Myers and Beck, are also the only two over 40. Plenty of ex-Cubs appear on the all-time list, 7 of the top 25, but only Smith, if even him, is associated first with the Cubs around the leagues. The best of the lot, Dennis Eckersley, made one relief appearance here before Tony LaRussa struck gold with him in Oakland.
I'm not saying the Cubs need a 60+ save guy like Francisco Rodriguez to take it to the next level - ideally a dominant team would score too many runs to present that many opportunities - but settling in with a young closer who allows you to wipe your brow and relax with a short late-inning lead, as opposed to making a Maalox run during the seventh-inning stretch, is a necessary element for repeated postseason appearances.
Unless the wheels come off the wagon in the next couple of years or Marmol develops chronic shoulder or elbow problems, Jim Hendry would do well to lock him down for the long haul before he reaches free agency in 2013.
Ryan Theriot and Kosuke Fukudome sparked a seventh-inning rally Wednesday to trim a run off the Milwaukeeans' 4-2 lead, and after the Brewers scored twice in the top half of eighth, the same two guys each hit a two-run single in the bottom half to give the Cubs a 7-6 win.
Not to be lost in the excitement was the performance of Carlos Marmol. For the second time in his last three outings, he struck out all three batters he faced to nail down the save. No slouches, either - the meat and potatoes of the Brewers' lineup in Corey Hart, Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder; all of them all-stars, all of them swinging.
Marmol is 14-for-14 in save opportunities since taking over the closer's role from Kevin Gregg late last August. He's struck out nine of the 16 batters he's faced in four and a third innings so far in 2010, allowing one hit and two walks. A bit of math tells you that more guys have struck out against him this year than have even hit fair balls. While I'm biased toward my Cubbies, I'm entertaining the possibility that the Cubs could have a Mariano Rivera-type closer on their hands for a good long time.
I'm a bit young to vividly remember the Bruce Sutter era on the north side, but I've seen a lot of closers come and go without the dominating stuff Marmol has. Big Lee Smith never gave me that confidence in the endgame; neither did Rich Gossage, Mitch Williams, Rick Aguilera, Randy Myers, Tom Gordon, Rod Beck, Antonio Alfonseca, Joe Borowski, LaTroy Hawkins, Ryan Dempster, Kerry Wood, Kevin Gregg... see where I'm going with this?
The Cubs aren't very well represented on the list of single-season save leaders. The two over 50 in a season, Myers and Beck, are also the only two over 40. Plenty of ex-Cubs appear on the all-time list, 7 of the top 25, but only Smith, if even him, is associated first with the Cubs around the leagues. The best of the lot, Dennis Eckersley, made one relief appearance here before Tony LaRussa struck gold with him in Oakland.
I'm not saying the Cubs need a 60+ save guy like Francisco Rodriguez to take it to the next level - ideally a dominant team would score too many runs to present that many opportunities - but settling in with a young closer who allows you to wipe your brow and relax with a short late-inning lead, as opposed to making a Maalox run during the seventh-inning stretch, is a necessary element for repeated postseason appearances.
Unless the wheels come off the wagon in the next couple of years or Marmol develops chronic shoulder or elbow problems, Jim Hendry would do well to lock him down for the long haul before he reaches free agency in 2013.
Monday, April 12, 2010
Meet the new boss, not like the old boss
Today was a good day. I've seen my share of 40-degree home openers, and this time the bats were as warm as the temperatures on this mild April afternoon. Aramis Ramirez got off the schneid with a big home run, playing the percentages by going with Xavier Nady against Doug Davis instead of Kosuke Fukudome paid off with another, and Jeff Baker added a third in a nice win. But this Opening Day, for me the game itself took a back seat to the first look at the new administration.
It was the first home opener for the Ricketts family as owners, and I like what I saw. Picking a random family dressed in Cubs gear out of the stands to throw out the first pitch was a classy move, and it didn't seem like a gimmick. There was never anyone to provide a "one of us" feeling during the Tribune era, and giving a high-profile moment to some of "us" right from the start instead of having some celebrity handle the ceremonial bit leaves the impression that they're not all talk, that you or I or anyone else in Cubbie Nation really could bump into Tom Ricketts at any given game and have a minute of his time to talk about the team. I can't picture any previous Cubs owners having that kind of relationship with the fans, from three generations of Wrigleys to Charlie Weeghman to Charles Taft and all the way back to the inception of the team.
Whether or not that translates into championships in the near future remains to be seen, but at least they give off the impression that they care as much as we do and want to share their experience.
A couple of notes on the coverage - WGN really needs to stop sending Robert Jordan out to cover baseball even when providing full team coverage. He referred to Ernie Banks as "Mr. Cubs" in a segment that aired three times today, a tell-tale sign of a reporter working somebody else's beat. I remember seeing him reporting live from one of the more rambunctious Wrigleyville bars after the Cubs clinched a playoff spot, maybe it was 2003, looking scared out of his wits. It was kind of hilarious. But big props to anchor Steve Sanders, apparently in a live shot from his home, fingerpicking "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" on acoustic guitar. I've seen him play on the noon news, and he has some nice chops.
In any case, it was a good day, a good win and a good start for the Ricketts family.
It was the first home opener for the Ricketts family as owners, and I like what I saw. Picking a random family dressed in Cubs gear out of the stands to throw out the first pitch was a classy move, and it didn't seem like a gimmick. There was never anyone to provide a "one of us" feeling during the Tribune era, and giving a high-profile moment to some of "us" right from the start instead of having some celebrity handle the ceremonial bit leaves the impression that they're not all talk, that you or I or anyone else in Cubbie Nation really could bump into Tom Ricketts at any given game and have a minute of his time to talk about the team. I can't picture any previous Cubs owners having that kind of relationship with the fans, from three generations of Wrigleys to Charlie Weeghman to Charles Taft and all the way back to the inception of the team.
Whether or not that translates into championships in the near future remains to be seen, but at least they give off the impression that they care as much as we do and want to share their experience.
A couple of notes on the coverage - WGN really needs to stop sending Robert Jordan out to cover baseball even when providing full team coverage. He referred to Ernie Banks as "Mr. Cubs" in a segment that aired three times today, a tell-tale sign of a reporter working somebody else's beat. I remember seeing him reporting live from one of the more rambunctious Wrigleyville bars after the Cubs clinched a playoff spot, maybe it was 2003, looking scared out of his wits. It was kind of hilarious. But big props to anchor Steve Sanders, apparently in a live shot from his home, fingerpicking "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" on acoustic guitar. I've seen him play on the noon news, and he has some nice chops.
In any case, it was a good day, a good win and a good start for the Ricketts family.
Already pointing fingers
The Cubs should have won their six-game opening road trip, or at least the three-game set at Cincinnati that slipped away in the late innings Sunday. Why the Cubs have had so much trouble in the Great American Ballpark in early April for the past several years is beyond me.
Alfonso Soriano was the goat of the day yesterday, dropping one fly ball and letting another fall safely foul, contributing to the Reds' comeback. Naturally it was a prominent topic on the call-in shows.
We know by now what to expect from Soriano, and defense isn't it. He came up as a second-baseman and fought a move to the outfield once he was on his third big-league team. And he just isn't very good at it. Like tee-ball coaches, Lou Piniella needs to accept that and play him where his glove will be the least possible liability. For the time being I say that should mean a move to right field.
Slipping under the radar because of the Soriano snafu is the performance of Esmailin Caridad. Caridad took it on the chin for the second time in three days yesterday, entering the game just in time to walk in the game-winning run, inherited from and charged to John Grabow, after giving up a game-winning grand slam Friday.
I just don't think you pitch an unproven youngster with the game on the line two days after an outing like that. I'd like to see him pitch effectively in some 8-2 games before dropping him back into a clutch situation.
But roll it back to before Grabow got in trouble. Sean Marshall came on in relief after Soriano's hop and drop, giving up the unearned tying run on a single before snapping off two swinging strikeouts. Is there really so little confidence in Marshall that he gets pulled after 2/3 of an inning? With the excess of potential starters, including Marshall and yesterday's starter, Tom Gorzelanny, the Cubs should be able to get from starter to closer using one pitcher most of the time. No major league team should need four pitchers to get five outs. I've said it many times, the more pitchers you use in any given game, the better the odds of finding the guy whose stuff isn't working that day.
And I can't fail to mention that the Cubs let a guy off the hook in his professional debut by scoring only once on seven walks and four hits in six and a third. Mike Leake also went 2-for-2.
At least it's only one of 162, but I'd prefer to not see this kind of baseball become a habit. The Cubs need more games like Saturday's, when they won without leaving a single runner on base for the first time in over 13,000 games since 1924.
Let's hope the Cubbies turn it around at home and put all that behind them. Ryan Dempster and the Brewers' Doug Davis square off in the home opener at 1:20 this afternoon.
Alfonso Soriano was the goat of the day yesterday, dropping one fly ball and letting another fall safely foul, contributing to the Reds' comeback. Naturally it was a prominent topic on the call-in shows.
We know by now what to expect from Soriano, and defense isn't it. He came up as a second-baseman and fought a move to the outfield once he was on his third big-league team. And he just isn't very good at it. Like tee-ball coaches, Lou Piniella needs to accept that and play him where his glove will be the least possible liability. For the time being I say that should mean a move to right field.
Slipping under the radar because of the Soriano snafu is the performance of Esmailin Caridad. Caridad took it on the chin for the second time in three days yesterday, entering the game just in time to walk in the game-winning run, inherited from and charged to John Grabow, after giving up a game-winning grand slam Friday.
I just don't think you pitch an unproven youngster with the game on the line two days after an outing like that. I'd like to see him pitch effectively in some 8-2 games before dropping him back into a clutch situation.
But roll it back to before Grabow got in trouble. Sean Marshall came on in relief after Soriano's hop and drop, giving up the unearned tying run on a single before snapping off two swinging strikeouts. Is there really so little confidence in Marshall that he gets pulled after 2/3 of an inning? With the excess of potential starters, including Marshall and yesterday's starter, Tom Gorzelanny, the Cubs should be able to get from starter to closer using one pitcher most of the time. No major league team should need four pitchers to get five outs. I've said it many times, the more pitchers you use in any given game, the better the odds of finding the guy whose stuff isn't working that day.
And I can't fail to mention that the Cubs let a guy off the hook in his professional debut by scoring only once on seven walks and four hits in six and a third. Mike Leake also went 2-for-2.
At least it's only one of 162, but I'd prefer to not see this kind of baseball become a habit. The Cubs need more games like Saturday's, when they won without leaving a single runner on base for the first time in over 13,000 games since 1924.
Let's hope the Cubbies turn it around at home and put all that behind them. Ryan Dempster and the Brewers' Doug Davis square off in the home opener at 1:20 this afternoon.
Monday, April 05, 2010
2010 Preview
Opening Day is here, another long winter passed. Every spring Opening Day brings out the optimist in me with projections leaning on the Cub-friendly side, though I nailed it last year saying the Cubs "could be in a heap of trouble in the power department if Aramis Ramirez misses an extended period of time". Anyhoo...
Offense-wise, I expect improvement. Derrek Lee was the only starter who hit above expectations in 2009, and Ramirez missed two full months, a third of the season. The Cubs could reasonably expect more offense from all three outfield positions, third base and catcher. In the outfield, Marlon Byrd is a step up from Milton Bradley’s productivity as a Cub, and Tyler Colvin will take starts away from him, Soriano and Fukudome if they don’t pull their weight. On the middle infield, if Mike Fontenot hits like he can over a full season, or Starlin Castro forces his way into the lineup, there should be an improvement over last year’s production with the addition-by-subtraction of Aaron Miles. Unless Geovany Soto is really the player we saw in 2009 rather than in 2008, there should be improvement from his lineup slot - he dropped a bunch of weight and his eyebrows are less aggressively trimmed, so at least he looks serious. And D-Lee is in a contract year.
I’m not worried much about the rotation. Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly and Randy Wells are a solid front four (though I think the Cards are stronger in their top two with Carpenter and Wainwright), and Sean Marshall has patiently earned a shot. Carlos Silva looks better than he was with Seattle – if his mother being able to enter the country makes a difference, and off-the-field things like that really can, we could be in for a very pleasant surprise – and I think Tom Gorzelanny can be a decent swingman. Carlos Marmol gets his first shot at closing all year, so I’m concerned about how well he makes the transition as well as his control this spring, and practically every team has middle-relief questions every year, the 2010 Cubs included. We’ll just have to wait and see.
For all their problems, the 2009 Cubs still finished in second place, and none of the departed players will be missed except for maybe Jake Fox and Rich Harden. The Cardinals have been the best team in the Central since they picked up Matt Holliday, but if the Cards pitched over their heads last year – Carpenter, Wainwright, Franklin – the Cubs can make it close.
Barring a long-term injury to Ramirez, Lee, Marmol or one of the front three starters, I see the 2010 Cubs in the 90-72 range and in the running for the Wild Card, depending on who pops up on the trade market.
1. Cardinals
2. Cubs
3. Reds
4. Brewers
5. Astros
6. Pirates
2. Cubs
3. Reds
4. Brewers
5. Astros
6. Pirates
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