Leadoff tradeoff

Rumors are abound that the Cubs are about to dump off a lot of young talent to bring in Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts to bat leadoff. Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher and Ronny Cedeno have been talked about as "part" of the package to bring Roberts to the north side.

I don't get it. Is Alfonso Soriano a leadoff hitter "only" or not? They're ready to jettison that line of thinking as soon as a career .280 hitter who once stole 50 bases becomes available?

Roberts seems like a good guy despite his appearance in the Mitchell Report and his subsequent confession, but the overlooked factor is that the Cubs already have somebody who can give the Cubs a higher leadoff average than Soriano and still steal a load of bases.

I'm talking about Ryan Theriot.

Theriot has a higher career batting average than Roberts as a leadoff hitter as well as a higher success rate as a base-stealer. Last season he stole 28 bases in 32 tries, and the only thing keeping him from 50-60 or more is more green lights from Lou Piniella. We know Soriano can steal 40+ bases too, but last year he only had 25 attempts. The only edge I see Roberts having over Theriot in the leadoff role is that he can switch-hit.

And personally I don't think the combination of Mark DeRosa and Mike Fontenot failed last year. DeRosa, in fact, hit for a higher batting average than Roberts too, with a similar OBP.

I'm not saying the Cubs might improve their chances with an all-star second baseman, but the upside of Brian Roberts over the status quo isn't worth what the Orioles are asking. Not at the expense of a 25-year-old starting pitcher who knocked a point and a half off his ERA last year like Marshall, and Gallagher and Cedeno and who knows who else. They don't need to strip-mine their farm system for roles they can already fill.