Leading the arms race

Brian Roberts rumors notwithstanding, the Cubs will have a surplus of pitching going into Mesa next week.

Kinda nice to hear that, eh, Cub fans?

I’d say the front three starters are set in concrete – Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly and Rich Hill. But what after that? The Cubs have a bevy of starters fighting over two spots, many with some established cred around the league. Jason Marquis started hot last year, but even after his ERA started to balloon he still only had one sub-.500 month. Lefty Sean Marshall gave up three or fewer earned runs in 15 of 19 starts last year and dropped his ERA from over 5 to under 4. Jon Lieber is back, supposedly at full health for the first time in three seasons. Then there’s Sean Gallagher, trying to be the next in a continuing series of emergent stars out of the farm system. That makes seven.

And what about Ryan Dempster? The Cubs plan to give Dempster a shot at the rotation while Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol and Bobby Howry fight over his closer’s spot. If one or more of those guys goes lights-out in Mesa and Dempster doesn’t break the rotation, does he become a swing man after reliably closing out games in ninth-inning save situations?

At least two of the three guys fighting over the closer’s role will work setup, while Shingo Takatsu and returning former Cub Chad Fox, effective before Dusty Baker burned him out, will also be trying to crack the bullpen as non-roster invitees. Scott Eyre will have one of those slots, and probably Michael Wuertz, but what about Neal Cotts? Or playoff invitee Kevin Hart? Or new Cub Jose Ascanio? Or Carmen Pignatiello?

Obviously the Cubs won’t be bringing 19 pitchers out of Mesa. And the Iowa Cubs will be stocked with quality pitchers ready to step in and fill any cracks that develop. But there’s enough surplus talent to serve as trade bait.

I’ve said before that the Cubs don’t need Roberts. Not only has Ryan Theriot put up better numbers in the leadoff slot given his number of plate appearances and green lights on the basepaths, but the addition of Roberts would mess with the role of the very effective Mark DeRosa. His versatility at multiple positions offers the perfect chance for Mike Fontenot to develop as a Major League second baseman alongside his old double-play partner Theriot.

If it was up to me, I’d stand pat instead of looking for one more offensive piece and wait to see if a mid-season offer comes along that they can’t refuse. Every year there are teams that need pitching help to fortify playoff runs, just like there are always teams that give up after two months and look to move quality veterans to cut payroll.

Sit back and crack open a cold one, folks. It looks like we’re in for an exciting summer.